Black Swan Student Society

Markets

What prediction markets are pricing at the moment: the questions trading most today, and the ones that moved most this week.

Most traded today

Ranked by volume over the last 24 hours.

  • Brazil Presidential Election

    $1.6M traded today

    • Flávio Bolsonaro

      81%

    • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

      20%

  • US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

    $1.2M traded today

    • November 15

      57%

    • November 22

      49%

    • November 30

      40%

  • Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

    $516K traded today

    • Gadi Eizenkot

      54%

    • Benjamin Netanyahu

      28%

    • Naftali Bennett

      14%

  • Fed Decision in October?

    $451K traded today

    • No change

      87%

    • 25 bps increase

      14%

  • Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

    $415K traded today

    • December 31

      5%

  • Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

    $406K traded today

    • Democrats Sweep

      63%

    • R Senate, D House

      28%

    • Republicans Sweep

      9%

  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

    $374K traded today

    • November 15

      71%

    • November 30

      64%

    • December 31

      52%

  • Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

    $367K traded today

    • No Hormuz Agreement

      90%

    • Hormuz Agreement; D Senate

      5%

    • Hormuz Agreement; R Senate

      4%

  • Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

    $352K traded today

    • Flávio Bolsonaro <4%

      41%

    • Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%

      31%

    • Lula da Silva <4%

      19%

  • Next French Presidential Election

    $284K traded today

    • Marine Le Pen

      48%

    • Édouard Philippe

      18%

    • David Lisnard

      12%

Moved most this week

Each outcome's chance now, and how far it moved in seven days.

  • Next Prime Minister of Romania?

    • Luca Niculescu

      95%

      , up 40 points this week

  • US imports Russian diesel by...?

    • October 31

      2%

      , down 39 points this week

    • November 30

      32%

  • What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

    • Reaches $87,500

      28%

      , down 21 points this week

    • Reaches $85,000

      55%

      , down 21 points this week

    • Dips to $77,500

      41%

      , up 4 points this week

  • Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

    • October 31

      8%

      , down 10 points this week

    • November 30

      20%

      , down 21 points this week

    • December 31

      30%

      , down 28 points this week

  • Israeli Legislative Election Winner

    • Yashar

      68%

      , up 20 points this week

    • Likud

      32%

      , down 19 points this week

  • Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

    • Reaches $2.5T

      24%

      , down 23 points this week

    • Reaches $2.0T

      57%

      , down 18 points this week

    • Reaches $1.75T

      68%

      , down 13 points this week

  • Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

    • Flávio Bolsonaro <4%

      41%

      , up 14 points this week

    • Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%

      31%

      , down 18 points this week

    • Lula da Silva <4%

      19%

      , up 9 points this week

  • US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

    • October 31

      93%

      , up 16 points this week

    • November 30

      80%

Prices from Polymarket, as of 18 October at 05:00 Milan time, refreshed every ten minutes. Each figure is the market's price for that outcome, read as a chance: a price of $0.42 shows as 42%. Outcomes under 1% are left out. Shown for research only: not advice, and the society has no connection to Polymarket.